Serie A · Gameweek 8
Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Bologna 40.3%
Prediction probabilities
Cagliari vs Bologna: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.7% in the model.
Cagliari are 4th on 13 points after 6 matches; Bologna are 14th on 5. In 10 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Cagliari won 3, Bologna won 6 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 3 May 2026: Bologna 0–0 Cagliari. In their last 5 league matches Cagliari won 3 and Bologna won 1.
Home and away form
Cagliari at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Juventus · 1–1 (D)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Lecce · 1–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–1 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Torino · 2–1 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Udinese · 0–2 (L)
Bologna away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Lecce · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 0–1 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Atalanta · 0–1 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Atalanta · 1–0 (W)
- 11 May 2026 · Napoli · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.3%Under 57.7%
- Both teams score
- 48.3%No 51.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.09 – 1.28Total 2.37 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 34%Cagliari · Bologna
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 2.5 | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 3.5 | 21.6% | 78.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Cagliari to score 1.09 goals and Bologna 1.28. Its ratings have Cagliari scoring at 0.92 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.09 and 0.91 for Bologna. How the model works.
Questions about Cagliari vs Bologna
Who is the favourite in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our model's most likely result is Bologna win at 40.3%. Full probabilities: Cagliari 31.3%, draw 28.4%, Bologna 40.3%.
What is the most likely score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.09 goals for Cagliari and 1.28 for Bologna.
Will Cagliari vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.3% and both teams to score 48.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.