Serie A · Gameweek 8
Como vs Sassuolo Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Como 58.7%
Prediction probabilities
Como vs Sassuolo: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 54.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.9% in the model.
Como are 7th on 11 points after 6 matches; Sassuolo are 11th on 8. In 2 Serie A meetings since 2025-26, Como won 1, Sassuolo won 1 and none were drawn. They last met on 17 Apr 2026: Sassuolo 2–1 Como. In their last 5 league matches Como won 3 and Sassuolo won 2.
Home and away form
Como at home
4 played · 2W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 0.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Roma · 0–0 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Parma · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Parma · 1–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Napoli · 0–0 (D)
Sassuolo away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Monza · 1–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Bologna · 2–2 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Atalanta · 1–2 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Parma · 0–1 (L)
- 8 May 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.5%Under 45.5%
- Both teams score
- 52.9%No 47.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.89 – 0.97Total 2.86 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 15%Como · Sassuolo
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 3.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Como to score 1.89 goals and Sassuolo 0.97. Its ratings have Como scoring at 1.30 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.77 times, against 1.08 and 1.11 for Sassuolo. How the model works.
Questions about Como vs Sassuolo
Who is the favourite in Como vs Sassuolo?
Our model's most likely result is Como win at 58.7%. Full probabilities: Como 58.7%, draw 22.7%, Sassuolo 18.6%.
What is the most likely score in Como vs Sassuolo?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.8%. The model expects 1.89 goals for Como and 0.97 for Sassuolo.
Will Como vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.5% and both teams to score 52.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.