Serie A · Gameweek 8
Napoli vs Roma Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Napoli 36.6%
Prediction probabilities
Napoli vs Roma: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 58.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 52.3% in the model.
Napoli are 8th on 10 points after 6 matches; Roma are 3rd on 14. In 12 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Napoli won 6, Roma won 1 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 15 Feb 2026: Napoli 2–2 Roma. In their last 5 league matches Napoli won 2 and Roma won 3.
Home and away form
Napoli at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Frosinone · 3–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Bologna · 1–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Como · 1–2 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Udinese · 1–0 (W)
- 11 May 2026 · Bologna · 2–3 (L)
Roma away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Como · 0–0 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Torino · 2–0 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Lecce · 4–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Hellas Verona · 2–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Parma · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41.3%Under 58.7%
- Both teams score
- 47.8%No 52.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.19 – 1.15Total 2.33 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 31%Napoli · Roma
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 2.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 3.5 | 20.7% | 79.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Napoli to score 1.19 goals and Roma 1.15. Its ratings have Napoli scoring at 1.29 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.73 times, against 1.35 and 0.70 for Roma. How the model works.
Questions about Napoli vs Roma
Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Roma?
Our model's most likely result is Napoli win at 36.6%. Full probabilities: Napoli 36.6%, draw 28.8%, Roma 34.6%.
What is the most likely score in Napoli vs Roma?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.5%. The model expects 1.19 goals for Napoli and 1.15 for Roma.
Will Napoli vs Roma have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 41.3% and both teams to score 47.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.