Serie A · Gameweek 8
Lazio vs Parma Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Lazio 53.6%
Prediction probabilities
Lazio vs Parma: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 62.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 59.1% in the model.
Lazio are 2nd on 16 points after 6 matches; Parma are 18th on 4. In 6 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Lazio won 3, Parma won 1 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 4 Apr 2026: Lazio 1–1 Parma. In their last 5 league matches Lazio won 4 and Parma won 1.
Home and away form
Lazio at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Monza · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Genoa · 1–0 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Pisa · 2–1 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–3 (L)
Parma away
5 played · 0W · 0D · 5L
Goals per match: 0.2 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–3 (L)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Como · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Juventus · 0–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Como · 0–1 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38.0%Under 62.0%
- Both teams score
- 40.9%No 59.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.46 – 0.75Total 2.21 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 47% · 23%Lazio · Parma
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 2.5 | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| 3.5 | 18.2% | 81.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lazio to score 1.46 goals and Parma 0.75. Its ratings have Lazio scoring at 1.11 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.84 times, against 0.77 and 1.00 for Parma. How the model works.
Questions about Lazio vs Parma
Who is the favourite in Lazio vs Parma?
Our model's most likely result is Lazio win at 53.6%. Full probabilities: Lazio 53.6%, draw 27.4%, Parma 19.0%.
What is the most likely score in Lazio vs Parma?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 15.7%. The model expects 1.46 goals for Lazio and 0.75 for Parma.
Will Lazio vs Parma have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 38.0% and both teams to score 40.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.