Serie A · Gameweek 8
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Inter Milan 69.6%
Prediction probabilities
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 66.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 56.9% in the model.
Inter Milan are 1st on 16 points after 6 matches; Fiorentina are 19th on 4. In 12 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Inter Milan won 8, Fiorentina won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 22 Mar 2026: Fiorentina 1–1 Inter Milan. In their last 5 league matches Inter Milan won 4 and Fiorentina won 1.
Home and away form
Inter Milan at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Parma · 3–0 (W)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 5–3 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 3–2 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Monza · 4–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Hellas Verona · 1–1 (D)
Fiorentina away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Genoa · 1–2 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Venezia · 4–2 (W)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Roma · 0–4 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Juventus · 2–0 (W)
- 4 May 2026 · Roma · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66.3%Under 33.7%
- Both teams score
- 56.9%No 43.1%
- Predicted goals
- 2.45 – 0.97Total 3.42 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 9%Inter Milan · Fiorentina
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 2.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 3.5 | 44.5% | 55.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Inter Milan to score 2.45 goals and Fiorentina 0.97. Its ratings have Inter Milan scoring at 1.85 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.77 times, against 1.09 and 1.01 for Fiorentina. How the model works.
Questions about Inter Milan vs Fiorentina
Who is the favourite in Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our model's most likely result is Inter Milan win at 69.6%. Full probabilities: Inter Milan 69.6%, draw 17.5%, Fiorentina 12.9%.
What is the most likely score in Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 9.8%. The model expects 2.45 goals for Inter Milan and 0.97 for Fiorentina.
Will Inter Milan vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 66.3% and both teams to score 56.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.