Serie A · Gameweek 8
Atalanta vs Frosinone Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Atalanta 56.1%
Prediction probabilities
Atalanta vs Frosinone: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 54.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 54.0% in the model.
Atalanta are 10th on 9 points after 6 matches; Frosinone are 9th on 10. In 2 Serie A meetings since 2023-24, Atalanta won 1, Frosinone won 1 and none were drawn. They last met on 15 Jan 2024: Atalanta 5–0 Frosinone. In their last 5 league matches Atalanta won 2 and Frosinone won 3.
Home and away form
Atalanta at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Venezia · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 1–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Bologna · 1–0 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Bologna · 0–1 (L)
Frosinone away
3 played · 1W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Napoli · 0–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Genoa · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Fiorentina · 3–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.4%Under 45.6%
- Both teams score
- 54.0%No 46.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.83 – 1.02Total 2.86 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 16%Atalanta · Frosinone
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 2.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 3.5 | 32.0% | 68.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Atalanta to score 1.83 goals and Frosinone 1.02. Its ratings have Atalanta scoring at 1.31 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.82 times, against 1.07 and 1.07 for Frosinone. How the model works.
Questions about Atalanta vs Frosinone
Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Our model's most likely result is Atalanta win at 56.1%. Full probabilities: Atalanta 56.1%, draw 23.3%, Frosinone 20.6%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.1%. The model expects 1.83 goals for Atalanta and 1.02 for Frosinone.
Will Atalanta vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.4% and both teams to score 54.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.