Serie A · Gameweek 8
Genoa vs Venezia Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Genoa 50.3%
Prediction probabilities
Genoa vs Venezia: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 54.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.5% in the model.
Genoa are 17th on 4 points after 6 matches; Venezia are 20th on 0. In 4 Serie A meetings since 2021-22, Genoa won 1, Venezia won 1 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 17 Feb 2025: Genoa 2–0 Venezia. In their last 5 league matches Genoa won 1 and Venezia won 0.
Home and away form
Genoa at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Frosinone · 1–1 (D)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Como · 1–4 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Napoli · 0–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · AC Milan · 1–2 (L)
Venezia away
3 played · 0W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Atalanta · 1–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Frosinone · 2–3 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · AC Milan · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.2%Under 54.8%
- Both teams score
- 48.5%No 51.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.53 – 0.95Total 2.48 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 22%Genoa · Venezia
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 2.5 | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 3.5 | 23.9% | 76.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Genoa to score 1.53 goals and Venezia 0.95. Its ratings have Genoa scoring at 0.90 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.81 and 1.30 for Venezia. How the model works.
Questions about Genoa vs Venezia
Who is the favourite in Genoa vs Venezia?
Our model's most likely result is Genoa win at 50.3%. Full probabilities: Genoa 50.3%, draw 26.4%, Venezia 23.3%.
What is the most likely score in Genoa vs Venezia?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.53 goals for Genoa and 0.95 for Venezia.
Will Genoa vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 45.2% and both teams to score 48.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.