Serie A · Gameweek 8
Udinese vs AC Milan Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: AC Milan 48.6%
Prediction probabilities
Udinese vs AC Milan: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 51.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.2% in the model.
Udinese are 15th on 4 points after 6 matches; AC Milan are 5th on 12. In 12 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Udinese won 3, AC Milan won 6 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 11 Apr 2026: AC Milan 0–3 Udinese. In their last 5 league matches Udinese won 1 and AC Milan won 2.
Home and away form
Udinese at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Lazio · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Como · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Cremonese · 0–1 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Torino · 2–0 (W)
AC Milan away
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Sassuolo · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lazio · 2–2 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Juventus · 1–1 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Torino · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Genoa · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.0%Under 51.0%
- Both teams score
- 52.2%No 47.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.07 – 1.57Total 2.63 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 34%Udinese · AC Milan
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 2.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 3.5 | 27.1% | 72.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Udinese to score 1.07 goals and AC Milan 1.57. Its ratings have Udinese scoring at 1.00 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.05 times, against 1.28 and 0.81 for AC Milan. How the model works.
Questions about Udinese vs AC Milan
Who is the favourite in Udinese vs AC Milan?
Our model's most likely result is AC Milan win at 48.6%. Full probabilities: Udinese 25.5%, draw 25.9%, AC Milan 48.6%.
What is the most likely score in Udinese vs AC Milan?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.07 goals for Udinese and 1.57 for AC Milan.
Will Udinese vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.0% and both teams to score 52.2%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.