Serie A · Gameweek 9
Sassuolo vs Lazio Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Lazio 42.6%
1 Serie A prediction published before kickoff and never edited; results are scored as matches are played. See every prediction ›
Sassuolo vs Lazio: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.6% in the model.
Sassuolo are 11th on 8 points after 6 matches; Lazio are 2nd on 16. In 24 Serie A meetings since 2013-14, Sassuolo won 6, Lazio won 14 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 9 Mar 2026: Lazio 2–1 Sassuolo. In their last 5 league matches Sassuolo won 2 and Lazio won 4.
Home and away form
Sassuolo at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · AC Milan · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Juventus · 3–2 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Torino · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Lecce · 2–3 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · AC Milan · 2–0 (W)
Lazio away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 2–1 (W)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Bologna · 1–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Roma · 0–2 (L)
- 4 May 2026 · Cremonese · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.2%Under 50.8%
- Both teams score
- 53.6%No 46.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.19 – 1.45Total 2.64 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 30%Sassuolo · Lazio
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 2.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 3.5 | 27.3% | 72.7% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Sassuolo to score 1.19 goals and Lazio 1.45. Its ratings have Sassuolo scoring at 1.09 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.11 times, against 1.12 and 0.83 for Lazio. How the model works.
Questions about Sassuolo vs Lazio
Who is the favourite in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Our model's most likely result is Lazio win at 42.6%. Full probabilities: Sassuolo 30.8%, draw 26.6%, Lazio 42.6%.
What is the most likely score in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.7%. The model expects 1.19 goals for Sassuolo and 1.45 for Lazio.
Will Sassuolo vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.2% and both teams to score 53.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-15
- Matches used
- 4,558
- Model version
- dc-v4-2d8455f315de
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.