Serie A · Gameweek 9
Roma vs Cagliari Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Roma 61.9%
Prediction probabilities
Roma vs Cagliari: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 55.8% in the model.
Roma are 3rd on 14 points after 6 matches; Cagliari are 4th on 13. In 10 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Roma won 7, Cagliari won 2 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 9 Feb 2026: Roma 2–0 Cagliari. In their last 5 league matches Roma won 3 and Cagliari won 3.
Home and away form
Roma at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–1 (W)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Fiorentina · 4–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Lazio · 2–0 (W)
- 4 May 2026 · Fiorentina · 4–0 (W)
Cagliari away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Parma · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · AC Milan · 2–1 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Bologna · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.5%Under 53.5%
- Both teams score
- 44.2%No 55.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.79 – 0.75Total 2.54 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 47% · 17%Roma · Cagliari
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 3.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Roma to score 1.79 goals and Cagliari 0.75. Its ratings have Roma scoring at 1.35 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.70 times, against 0.92 and 1.01 for Cagliari. How the model works.
Questions about Roma vs Cagliari
Who is the favourite in Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model's most likely result is Roma win at 61.9%. Full probabilities: Roma 61.9%, draw 23.2%, Cagliari 14.9%.
What is the most likely score in Roma vs Cagliari?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.9%. The model expects 1.79 goals for Roma and 0.75 for Cagliari.
Will Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.5% and both teams to score 44.2%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.