Serie A · Gameweek 9
AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: AC Milan 48.7%
Prediction probabilities
AC Milan vs Bologna: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.7% in the model.
AC Milan are 5th on 12 points after 6 matches; Bologna are 14th on 5. In 12 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, AC Milan won 8, Bologna won 1 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 3 Feb 2026: Bologna 0–3 AC Milan. In their last 5 league matches AC Milan won 2 and Bologna won 1.
Home and away form
AC Milan at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Lecce · 3–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Cagliari · 1–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Atalanta · 2–3 (L)
Bologna away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Lecce · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 0–1 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Atalanta · 0–1 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Atalanta · 1–0 (W)
- 11 May 2026 · Napoli · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.2%Under 52.8%
- Both teams score
- 50.7%No 49.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.53 – 1.03Total 2.56 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 22%AC Milan · Bologna
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 2.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 3.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects AC Milan to score 1.53 goals and Bologna 1.03. Its ratings have AC Milan scoring at 1.28 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.81 times, against 1.09 and 0.91 for Bologna. How the model works.
Questions about AC Milan vs Bologna
Who is the favourite in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our model's most likely result is AC Milan win at 48.7%. Full probabilities: AC Milan 48.7%, draw 26.2%, Bologna 25.1%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.53 goals for AC Milan and 1.03 for Bologna.
Will AC Milan vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.2% and both teams to score 50.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.