Serie A · Gameweek 9
Parma vs Udinese Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Udinese 37.8%
Prediction probabilities
Parma vs Udinese: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 61.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 54.7% in the model.
Parma are 18th on 4 points after 6 matches; Udinese are 15th on 4. In 6 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Parma won 1, Udinese won 4 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 18 Apr 2026: Udinese 0–1 Parma. In their last 5 league matches Parma won 1 and Udinese won 1.
Home and away form
Parma at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Genoa · 2–1 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Monza · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Sassuolo · 1–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Roma · 2–3 (L)
Udinese away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 3–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Monza · 3–2 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Napoli · 0–1 (L)
- 9 May 2026 · Cagliari · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38.4%Under 61.6%
- Both teams score
- 45.3%No 54.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.06 – 1.16Total 2.22 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 35%Parma · Udinese
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| 2.5 | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| 3.5 | 18.6% | 81.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Parma to score 1.06 goals and Udinese 1.16. Its ratings have Parma scoring at 0.77 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.00 times, against 1.00 and 1.05 for Udinese. How the model works.
Questions about Parma vs Udinese
Who is the favourite in Parma vs Udinese?
Our model's most likely result is Udinese win at 37.8%. Full probabilities: Parma 32.6%, draw 29.6%, Udinese 37.8%.
What is the most likely score in Parma vs Udinese?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.7%. The model expects 1.06 goals for Parma and 1.16 for Udinese.
Will Parma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 38.4% and both teams to score 45.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.