Serie A · Gameweek 9
Genoa vs Juventus Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Juventus 51.5%
Prediction probabilities
Genoa vs Juventus: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 58.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 55.4% in the model.
Genoa are 17th on 4 points after 6 matches; Juventus are 6th on 11. In 10 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Genoa won 1, Juventus won 7 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 6 Apr 2026: Juventus 2–0 Genoa. In their last 5 league matches Genoa won 1 and Juventus won 2.
Home and away form
Genoa at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Frosinone · 1–1 (D)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Como · 1–4 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Napoli · 0–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · AC Milan · 1–2 (L)
Juventus away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Cagliari · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–3 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Frosinone · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Torino · 2–2 (D)
- 9 May 2026 · Lecce · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41.2%Under 58.8%
- Both teams score
- 44.6%No 55.4%
- Predicted goals
- 0.85 – 1.48Total 2.33 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 43%Genoa · Juventus
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 2.5 | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 3.5 | 20.6% | 79.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Genoa to score 0.85 goals and Juventus 1.48. Its ratings have Genoa scoring at 0.90 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.25 and 0.72 for Juventus. How the model works.
Questions about Genoa vs Juventus
Who is the favourite in Genoa vs Juventus?
Our model's most likely result is Juventus win at 51.5%. Full probabilities: Genoa 21.4%, draw 27.1%, Juventus 51.5%.
What is the most likely score in Genoa vs Juventus?
0–1 is the single most likely score at 14.1%. The model expects 0.85 goals for Genoa and 1.48 for Juventus.
Will Genoa vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 41.2% and both teams to score 44.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-6fd52bbbd81f
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.