Serie A · Gameweek 9
Monza vs Napoli Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Napoli 62.9%
Prediction probabilities
Monza vs Napoli: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 50.2% in the model.
Monza are 16th on 4 points after 6 matches; Napoli are 8th on 10. In 6 Serie A meetings since 2022-23, Monza won 1, Napoli won 4 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 19 Apr 2025: Monza 0–1 Napoli. In their last 5 league matches Monza won 1 and Napoli won 2.
Home and away form
Monza at home
2 played · 1W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Udinese · 2–3 (L)
Napoli away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Fiorentina · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 2–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Genoa · 2–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Pisa · 3–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Como · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.5%Under 46.5%
- Both teams score
- 49.8%No 50.2%
- Predicted goals
- 0.86 – 1.96Total 2.82 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 14% · 42%Monza · Napoli
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 2.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 3.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Monza to score 0.86 goals and Napoli 1.96. Its ratings have Monza scoring at 0.90 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.31 times, against 1.29 and 0.73 for Napoli. How the model works.
Questions about Monza vs Napoli
Who is the favourite in Monza vs Napoli?
Our model's most likely result is Napoli win at 62.9%. Full probabilities: Monza 15.5%, draw 21.6%, Napoli 62.9%.
What is the most likely score in Monza vs Napoli?
0–2 is the single most likely score at 11.5%. The model expects 0.86 goals for Monza and 1.96 for Napoli.
Will Monza vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.5% and both teams to score 49.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-6fd52bbbd81f
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.