Serie A · Gameweek 9
Frosinone vs Lecce Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Frosinone 50.8%
1 Serie A prediction published before kickoff and never edited; results are scored as matches are played. See every prediction ›
Frosinone vs Lecce: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 54.0% in the model.
Frosinone are ninth in Serie A with 10 points from 6 matches, while Lecce are 13th with 6 points. Frosinone’s recent form is LWDWW, compared with Lecce’s LLWLL. Frosinone have won 2 of 3 at home, while Lecce have won 1 of 3 away. Their last meeting ended 1-1 on 3 Mar 2024, with Lecce leading the head-to-head record after 2 meetings.
Home and away form
Frosinone at home
3 played · 2W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.7 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Como · 2–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Venezia · 3–2 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Juventus · 0–1 (L)
Lecce away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 0–3 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Sassuolo · 3–2 (W)
- 1 May 2026 · Pisa · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.5%Under 57.5%
- Both teams score
- 46.0%No 54.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.49 – 0.89Total 2.38 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 41% · 23%Frosinone · Lecce
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 2.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 3.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Frosinone to score 1.49 goals and Lecce 0.89. Its ratings have Frosinone scoring at 1.07 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.07 times, against 0.72 and 1.06 for Lecce. How the model works.
Questions about Frosinone vs Lecce
Who is the favourite in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Our model's most likely result is Frosinone win at 50.8%. Full probabilities: Frosinone 50.8%, draw 26.9%, Lecce 22.3%.
What is the most likely score in Frosinone vs Lecce?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.49 goals for Frosinone and 0.89 for Lecce.
Will Frosinone vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.5% and both teams to score 46.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-15
- Matches used
- 4,558
- Model version
- dc-v4-a92c0eb46a84
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.