Serie A · Gameweek 9
Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Atalanta 45.6%
1 Serie A prediction published before kickoff and never edited; results are scored as matches are played. See every prediction ›
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 50.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 54.5% in the model.
Fiorentina are 19th in Serie A with 4 points, while Atalanta are 10th with 9 points. Fiorentina’s recent form is LDWLL and Atalanta’s is WLLLW. Fiorentina lead the head-to-head record with 18 wins to Atalanta’s 9, while the last meeting ended 1-1 on 22 May 2026. Fiorentina have 0 wins in 3 home matches, and Atalanta have 0 wins in 2 away matches.
Home and away form
Fiorentina at home
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Frosinone · 0–3 (L)
- 22 May 2026 · Atalanta · 1–1 (D)
- 10 May 2026 · Genoa · 0–0 (D)
Atalanta away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Juventus · 0–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Roma · 1–2 (L)
- 22 May 2026 · Fiorentina · 1–1 (D)
- 10 May 2026 · AC Milan · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.9%Under 49.1%
- Both teams score
- 54.5%No 45.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.17 – 1.54Total 2.71 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 31%Fiorentina · Atalanta
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 2.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| 3.5 | 28.9% | 71.2% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Fiorentina to score 1.17 goals and Atalanta 1.54. Its ratings have Fiorentina scoring at 1.09 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.00 times, against 1.31 and 0.82 for Atalanta. How the model works.
Questions about Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Who is the favourite in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our model's most likely result is Atalanta win at 45.6%. Full probabilities: Fiorentina 28.5%, draw 25.9%, Atalanta 45.6%.
What is the most likely score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.17 goals for Fiorentina and 1.54 for Atalanta.
Will Fiorentina vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.9% and both teams to score 54.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-15
- Matches used
- 4,558
- Model version
- dc-v4-a92c0eb46a84
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.