Serie A · Gameweek 10
Bologna vs Monza Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Bologna 58.6%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 1 of 3 predictions (33%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Bologna vs Monza: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.1% in the model.
Bologna are 14th on 5 points after 6 matches; Monza are 16th on 4. In 6 Serie A meetings since 2022-23, Bologna won 3, Monza won 1 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 18 Jan 2025: Bologna 3–1 Monza. In their last 5 league matches Bologna won 1 and Monza won 1.
Home and away form
Bologna at home
5 played · 0W · 4D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Torino · 1–1 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–2 (D)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Lazio · 0–1 (L)
- 23 May 2026 · Inter Milan · 3–3 (D)
- 3 May 2026 · Cagliari · 0–0 (D)
Monza away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Lazio · 1–3 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Lecce · 2–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Parma · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Inter Milan · 1–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bologna vs Monza: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.5%Under 46.5%
- Both teams score
- 52.1%No 47.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.87 – 0.95Total 2.82 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 15%Bologna · Monza
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.4% | 2/7 | 22.6% | 7/2 |
| 2.5 | 53.5% | 5/6 | 46.5% | 6/5 |
| 3.5 | 31.2% | 9/4 | 68.8% | 4/9 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bologna to score 1.87 goals and Monza 0.95. Its ratings have Bologna scoring at 1.08 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.91 times, against 0.90 and 1.30 for Monza. How the model works.
Questions about Bologna vs Monza
Who is the favourite in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model's most likely result is Bologna win at 58.6%. Full probabilities: Bologna 58.6%, draw 22.7%, Monza 18.7%.
What is the most likely score in Bologna vs Monza?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 10.9%. The model expects 1.87 goals for Bologna and 0.95 for Monza.
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.5% and both teams to score 52.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,552
- Model version
- dc-v4-6d353a8fc000
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.