Serie A · Gameweek 10
Udinese vs Roma Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Roma 54.1%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 3 of 4 predictions (75%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Udinese vs Roma: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.0% in the model.
Udinese are 15th on 4 points after 6 matches; Roma are 3rd on 14. In 42 Serie A meetings since 2005-06, Udinese won 9, Roma won 30 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 2 Feb 2026: Udinese 1–0 Roma. In their last 5 league matches Udinese won 1 and Roma won 3.
Home and away form
Udinese at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Lazio · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Como · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Cremonese · 0–1 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Torino · 2–0 (W)
Roma away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Como · 0–0 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Torino · 2–0 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Lecce · 4–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Hellas Verona · 2–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Parma · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Udinese vs Roma: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.5%Under 52.5%
- Both teams score
- 49.0%No 51.0%
- Predicted goals
- 0.93 – 1.65Total 2.57 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 19% · 40%Udinese · Roma
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.9% | 4/11 | 27.1% | 11/4 |
| 2.5 | 47.5% | 11/10 | 52.5% | 10/11 |
| 3.5 | 25.8% | 3/1 | 74.2% | 1/3 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Udinese to score 0.93 goals and Roma 1.65. Its ratings have Udinese scoring at 1.00 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.35 and 0.70 for Roma. How the model works.
Questions about Udinese vs Roma
Who is the favourite in Udinese vs Roma?
Our model's most likely result is Roma win at 54.1%. Full probabilities: Udinese 21.0%, draw 25.0%, Roma 54.1%.
What is the most likely score in Udinese vs Roma?
0–1 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 0.93 goals for Udinese and 1.65 for Roma.
Will Udinese vs Roma have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.5% and both teams to score 49.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,553
- Model version
- dc-v4-996af8c04ad3
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.