Serie A · Gameweek 10
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Inter Milan 47.9%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 3 of 4 predictions (75%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 58.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 60.1% in the model.
AC Milan are 6th on 12 points after 6 matches; Inter Milan are 1st on 19. In 42 Serie A meetings since 2005-06, AC Milan won 13, Inter Milan won 21 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 8 Mar 2026: AC Milan 1–0 Inter Milan. In their last 5 league matches AC Milan won 2 and Inter Milan won 4.
Home and away form
AC Milan at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Lecce · 3–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Cagliari · 1–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Atalanta · 2–3 (L)
Inter Milan away
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Bologna · 3–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Roma · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Cagliari · 1–0 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Bologna · 3–3 (D)
- 9 May 2026 · Lazio · 3–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.6%Under 41.4%
- Both teams score
- 60.1%No 39.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.29 – 1.75Total 3.04 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 17% · 27%AC Milan · Inter Milan
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.9% | 1/4 | 19.1% | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 58.6% | 8/11 | 41.4% | 11/8 |
| 3.5 | 36.2% | 7/4 | 63.8% | 4/7 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects AC Milan to score 1.29 goals and Inter Milan 1.75. Its ratings have AC Milan scoring at 1.28 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.81 times, against 1.85 and 0.76 for Inter Milan. How the model works.
Questions about AC Milan vs Inter Milan
Who is the favourite in AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
Our model's most likely result is Inter Milan win at 47.9%. Full probabilities: AC Milan 28.2%, draw 23.9%, Inter Milan 47.9%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.0%. The model expects 1.29 goals for AC Milan and 1.75 for Inter Milan.
Will AC Milan vs Inter Milan have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.6% and both teams to score 60.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,554
- Model version
- dc-v4-643d02491afc
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.