Serie A · Gameweek 10
Como vs Venezia Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Como 68.8%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 6 predictions (67%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Como vs Venezia: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 54.5% in the model.
Como are 8th on 11 points after 6 matches; Venezia are 20th on 3. In 2 Serie A meetings since 2024-25, Como won 0, Venezia won 0 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 8 Mar 2025: Como 1–1 Venezia. In their last 5 league matches Como won 3 and Venezia won 1.
Home and away form
Como at home
4 played · 2W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 0.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Roma · 0–0 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Parma · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Parma · 1–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Napoli · 0–0 (D)
Venezia away
3 played · 0W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Atalanta · 1–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Frosinone · 2–3 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · AC Milan · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Como vs Venezia: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.4%Under 46.6%
- Both teams score
- 45.5%No 54.5%
- Predicted goals
- 2.09 – 0.73Total 2.82 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 48% · 12%Como · Venezia
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.3% | 3/10 | 22.7% | 10/3 |
| 2.5 | 53.4% | 10/11 | 46.6% | 11/10 |
| 3.5 | 31.1% | 9/4 | 68.8% | 4/9 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Como to score 2.09 goals and Venezia 0.73. Its ratings have Como scoring at 1.29 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.76 times, against 0.81 and 1.22 for Venezia. How the model works.
Questions about Como vs Venezia
Who is the favourite in Como vs Venezia?
Our model's most likely result is Como win at 68.8%. Full probabilities: Como 68.8%, draw 19.5%, Venezia 11.7%.
What is the most likely score in Como vs Venezia?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 13.0%. The model expects 2.09 goals for Como and 0.73 for Venezia.
Will Como vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.4% and both teams to score 45.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,555
- Model version
- dc-v4-3e86e6f9ffb1
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →