Serie A · Gameweek 10
Lazio vs Cagliari Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Lazio 50.6%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Lazio vs Cagliari: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 54.1% in the model.
Lazio are 3rd on 16 points after 6 matches; Cagliari are 6th on 13. In 38 Serie A meetings since 2005-06, Lazio won 26, Cagliari won 5 and 7 were drawn. They last met on 21 Feb 2026: Cagliari 0–0 Lazio. In their last 5 league matches Lazio won 4 and Cagliari won 3.
Home and away form
Lazio at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Monza · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Genoa · 1–0 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Pisa · 2–1 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–3 (L)
Cagliari away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Parma · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · AC Milan · 2–1 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Bologna · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lazio vs Cagliari: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.3%Under 57.7%
- Both teams score
- 45.9%No 54.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.48 – 0.89Total 2.37 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 41% · 23%Lazio · Cagliari
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.8% | 4/9 | 31.2% | 9/4 |
| 2.5 | 42.3% | 11/8 | 57.7% | 8/11 |
| 3.5 | 21.6% | 7/2 | 78.4% | 2/7 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lazio to score 1.48 goals and Cagliari 0.89. Its ratings have Lazio scoring at 1.11 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.83 times, against 0.91 and 1.00 for Cagliari. How the model works.
Questions about Lazio vs Cagliari
Who is the favourite in Lazio vs Cagliari?
Our model's most likely result is Lazio win at 50.6%. Full probabilities: Lazio 50.6%, draw 26.8%, Cagliari 22.5%.
What is the most likely score in Lazio vs Cagliari?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.6%. The model expects 1.48 goals for Lazio and 0.89 for Cagliari.
Will Lazio vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.3% and both teams to score 45.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,556
- Model version
- dc-v4-5eea06f7db23
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →