Serie A · Gameweek 10
Lecce vs Genoa Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Genoa 37.0%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 8 predictions (63%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Lecce vs Genoa: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 65.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 58.3% in the model.
Lecce are 11th on 9 points after 7 matches; Genoa are 18th on 4. In 14 Serie A meetings since 2008-09, Lecce won 2, Genoa won 7 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 24 May 2026: Lecce 1–0 Genoa. In their last 5 league matches Lecce won 2 and Genoa won 1.
Home and away form
Lecce at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Bologna · 1–2 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Monza · 3–2 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Roma · 0–4 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Genoa · 1–0 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Juventus · 0–1 (L)
Genoa away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Roma · 0–2 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Parma · 1–2 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Lazio · 0–1 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Lecce · 0–1 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Fiorentina · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lecce vs Genoa: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 34.2%Under 65.8%
- Both teams score
- 41.8%No 58.3%
- Predicted goals
- 0.99 – 1.08Total 2.07 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 37%Lecce · Genoa
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61.5% | 8/13 | 38.5% | 13/8 |
| 2.5 | 34.2% | 15/8 | 65.8% | 8/15 |
| 3.5 | 15.6% | 11/2 | 84.4% | 2/11 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lecce to score 0.99 goals and Genoa 1.08. Its ratings have Lecce scoring at 0.74 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 0.88 and 1.01 for Genoa. How the model works.
Questions about Lecce vs Genoa
Who is the favourite in Lecce vs Genoa?
Our model's most likely result is Genoa win at 37.0%. Full probabilities: Lecce 32.3%, draw 30.7%, Genoa 37.0%.
What is the most likely score in Lecce vs Genoa?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.8%. The model expects 0.99 goals for Lecce and 1.08 for Genoa.
Will Lecce vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 34.2% and both teams to score 41.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,557
- Model version
- dc-v4-18ef13c57fa8
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →