Serie A · Gameweek 10
Juventus vs Napoli Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Juventus 37.6%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 8 predictions (63%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Juventus vs Napoli: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 60.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 53.7% in the model.
Juventus are 8th on 11 points after 7 matches; Napoli are 9th on 10. In 38 Serie A meetings since 2007-08, Juventus won 16, Napoli won 16 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 25 Jan 2026: Juventus 3–0 Napoli. In their last 5 league matches Juventus won 1 and Napoli won 2.
Home and away form
Juventus at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Lazio · 0–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Parma · 2–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Fiorentina · 0–2 (L)
Napoli away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Venezia · 0–1 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Fiorentina · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 2–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Genoa · 2–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Pisa · 3–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Juventus vs Napoli: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.7%Under 60.3%
- Both teams score
- 46.3%No 53.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.18 – 1.10Total 2.27 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 31%Juventus · Napoli
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.6% | 1/2 | 33.4% | 2/1 |
| 2.5 | 39.7% | 6/4 | 60.3% | 4/6 |
| 3.5 | 19.6% | 4/1 | 80.5% | 1/4 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Juventus to score 1.18 goals and Napoli 1.10. Its ratings have Juventus scoring at 1.23 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.74 times, against 1.25 and 0.73 for Napoli. How the model works.
Questions about Juventus vs Napoli
Who is the favourite in Juventus vs Napoli?
Our model's most likely result is Juventus win at 37.6%. Full probabilities: Juventus 37.6%, draw 29.0%, Napoli 33.4%.
What is the most likely score in Juventus vs Napoli?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.5%. The model expects 1.18 goals for Juventus and 1.10 for Napoli.
Will Juventus vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 39.7% and both teams to score 46.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,558
- Model version
- dc-v4-e1333da6c0d5
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →