Serie A · Gameweek 10
Atalanta vs Parma Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Atalanta 61.5%
Our Serie A record: the most likely result happened in 6 of 10 predictions (60%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Atalanta vs Parma: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 55.6% in the model.
In 24 Serie A meetings since 2006-07, Atalanta won 14, Parma won 6 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 25 Jan 2026: Atalanta 4–0 Parma. In their last 5 league matches Atalanta won 1 and Parma won 1.
Home and away form
Atalanta at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Venezia · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 1–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Bologna · 1–0 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Bologna · 0–1 (L)
Parma away
4 played · 0W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.3 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–3 (L)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Como · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Juventus · 0–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Como · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Atalanta vs Parma: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.5%Under 53.5%
- Both teams score
- 44.4%No 55.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.78 – 0.76Total 2.53 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 47% · 17%Atalanta · Parma
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 3.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Atalanta vs Parma: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 61.5% · 23.2% · 15.3% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Atalanta win
- 61.5%
- Draw
- 23.2%
- Parma win
- 15.3%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.6%Under 53.4%
- Both teams score
- 44.5%No 55.5%
- Clean sheet
- 47% · 17%Atalanta · Parma
Scoreline probability grid
1–0 13.8% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Serie A season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: atalanta wins · above: parma wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.0% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Atalanta to score 1.78 goals and Parma 0.76. Its ratings have Atalanta scoring at 1.31 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.83 times, against 0.77 and 1.02 for Parma. How the model works.
Questions about Atalanta vs Parma
Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Parma?
Our model's most likely result is Atalanta win at 61.5%. Full probabilities: Atalanta 61.5%, draw 23.2%, Parma 15.3%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta vs Parma?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.9%. The model expects 1.78 goals for Atalanta and 0.76 for Parma.
Will Atalanta vs Parma have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.5% and both teams to score 44.4%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-19
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-8115d5390276
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →