Championship · 2026-27
Championship next six fixtures and expected points
West Ham have the highest model expected points across a full six-fixture window: 12.47 out of 18. Compare 24 clubs with dated upcoming fixtures below.
Expected points reflect each club's strength as well as its opponents and venues. A higher total does not by itself mean an easier schedule.
Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:48 UTC · Season model dc-v4-8368927056dd. Fixtures are selected after the current time; postponed or undated fixtures are excluded.
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Expected points over the next six matches
Ordered by total expected points, highest first. These are six scheduled matches, not necessarily six consecutive matchweeks.
| Rank | Club | Fixtures | Home / away | Expected points / available | Upcoming opponents (H/A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 6 | 3 / 3 | 12.47 / 18 | Southampton (H, 24 Oct 2026); West Bromwich Albion (H, 31 Oct 2026); Cardiff City (A, 4 Nov 2026); Blackburn Rovers (A, 7 Nov 2026); Preston North End (H, 21 Nov 2026); Portsmouth (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 2 | Burnley | 6 | 3 / 3 | 10.85 / 18 | Lincoln City (A, 24 Oct 2026); Portsmouth (H, 31 Oct 2026); Queens Park Rangers (A, 3 Nov 2026); Cardiff City (A, 7 Nov 2026); Blackburn Rovers (H, 22 Nov 2026); Birmingham City (H, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4 / 2 | 10.70 / 18 | Portsmouth (H, 20 Oct 2026); Watford (H, 24 Oct 2026); Cardiff City (H, 31 Oct 2026); Bristol City (A, 4 Nov 2026); Wrexham (A, 7 Nov 2026); Charlton Athletic (H, 21 Nov 2026) |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 6 | 3 / 3 | 10.04 / 18 | Bolton Wanderers (A, 23 Oct 2026); Charlton Athletic (H, 31 Oct 2026); Wrexham (A, 4 Nov 2026); Watford (A, 7 Nov 2026); Bristol City (H, 21 Nov 2026); Swansea City (H, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 5 | Southampton | 6 | 2 / 4 | 9.79 / 18 | West Ham (A, 24 Oct 2026); Queens Park Rangers (H, 31 Oct 2026); West Bromwich Albion (A, 3 Nov 2026); Preston North End (A, 7 Nov 2026); Derby County (H, 21 Nov 2026); Sheffield United (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 6 | Sheffield United | 6 | 4 / 2 | 9.73 / 18 | Derby County (H, 24 Oct 2026); Wrexham (H, 30 Oct 2026); Preston North End (A, 3 Nov 2026); Charlton Athletic (A, 7 Nov 2026); Watford (H, 21 Nov 2026); Southampton (H, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 7 | Norwich City | 6 | 3 / 3 | 9.48 / 18 | Charlton Athletic (A, 24 Oct 2026); Watford (H, 31 Oct 2026); Derby County (A, 3 Nov 2026); Bristol City (A, 7 Nov 2026); Cardiff City (H, 21 Nov 2026); Queens Park Rangers (H, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 8 | Millwall | 6 | 2 / 4 | 8.67 / 18 | Portsmouth (A, 24 Oct 2026); Derby County (H, 31 Oct 2026); Birmingham City (A, 3 Nov 2026); West Bromwich Albion (A, 7 Nov 2026); Queens Park Rangers (H, 21 Nov 2026); Stoke City (A, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 6 | 4 / 2 | 8.42 / 18 | Middlesbrough (H, 23 Oct 2026); Bristol City (H, 31 Oct 2026); Charlton Athletic (A, 3 Nov 2026); Derby County (A, 6 Nov 2026); Portsmouth (H, 21 Nov 2026); West Bromwich Albion (H, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 10 | Stoke City | 6 | 4 / 2 | 8.38 / 18 | Bristol City (H, 24 Oct 2026); Preston North End (H, 31 Oct 2026); Blackburn Rovers (A, 3 Nov 2026); Portsmouth (A, 7 Nov 2026); Birmingham City (H, 21 Nov 2026); Millwall (H, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 6 | 2 / 4 | 8.27 / 18 | Cardiff City (A, 24 Oct 2026); Lincoln City (A, 31 Oct 2026); Millwall (H, 3 Nov 2026); Swansea City (H, 7 Nov 2026); Stoke City (A, 21 Nov 2026); Burnley (A, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 12 | Swansea City | 6 | 2 / 4 | 8.16 / 18 | Queens Park Rangers (A, 24 Oct 2026); Blackburn Rovers (H, 31 Oct 2026); Portsmouth (A, 3 Nov 2026); Birmingham City (A, 7 Nov 2026); West Bromwich Albion (H, 21 Nov 2026); Middlesbrough (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 13 | Wrexham | 6 | 2 / 4 | 7.98 / 18 | Blackburn Rovers (A, 24 Oct 2026); Sheffield United (A, 30 Oct 2026); Middlesbrough (H, 4 Nov 2026); Wolverhampton (H, 7 Nov 2026); Lincoln City (A, 21 Nov 2026); Bristol City (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 14 | Bristol City | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.60 / 18 | Stoke City (A, 24 Oct 2026); Bolton Wanderers (A, 31 Oct 2026); Wolverhampton (H, 4 Nov 2026); Norwich City (H, 7 Nov 2026); Middlesbrough (A, 21 Nov 2026); Wrexham (H, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 15 | West Bromwich Albion | 6 | 2 / 4 | 7.29 / 18 | Preston North End (A, 24 Oct 2026); West Ham (A, 31 Oct 2026); Southampton (H, 3 Nov 2026); Millwall (H, 7 Nov 2026); Swansea City (A, 21 Nov 2026); Bolton Wanderers (A, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 16 | Charlton Athletic | 6 | 4 / 2 | 7.03 / 18 | Norwich City (H, 24 Oct 2026); Middlesbrough (A, 31 Oct 2026); Bolton Wanderers (H, 3 Nov 2026); Sheffield United (H, 7 Nov 2026); Wolverhampton (A, 21 Nov 2026); Lincoln City (H, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 17 | Blackburn Rovers | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.02 / 18 | Wrexham (H, 24 Oct 2026); Swansea City (A, 31 Oct 2026); Stoke City (H, 3 Nov 2026); West Ham (H, 7 Nov 2026); Burnley (A, 22 Nov 2026); Watford (A, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 18 | Queens Park Rangers | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.00 / 18 | Swansea City (H, 24 Oct 2026); Southampton (A, 31 Oct 2026); Burnley (H, 3 Nov 2026); Lincoln City (H, 7 Nov 2026); Millwall (A, 21 Nov 2026); Norwich City (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 6 | 3 / 3 | 6.84 / 18 | Wolverhampton (A, 20 Oct 2026); Millwall (H, 24 Oct 2026); Burnley (A, 31 Oct 2026); Swansea City (H, 3 Nov 2026); Stoke City (H, 7 Nov 2026); Bolton Wanderers (A, 21 Nov 2026) |
| 20 | Watford | 6 | 3 / 3 | 6.80 / 18 | Wolverhampton (A, 24 Oct 2026); Norwich City (A, 31 Oct 2026); Lincoln City (H, 3 Nov 2026); Middlesbrough (H, 7 Nov 2026); Sheffield United (A, 21 Nov 2026); Blackburn Rovers (H, 25 Nov 2026) |
| 21 | Derby County | 6 | 2 / 4 | 6.59 / 18 | Sheffield United (A, 24 Oct 2026); Millwall (A, 31 Oct 2026); Norwich City (H, 3 Nov 2026); Bolton Wanderers (H, 6 Nov 2026); Southampton (A, 21 Nov 2026); Wolverhampton (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 22 | Cardiff City | 6 | 4 / 2 | 6.57 / 18 | Birmingham City (H, 24 Oct 2026); Wolverhampton (A, 31 Oct 2026); West Ham (H, 4 Nov 2026); Burnley (H, 7 Nov 2026); Norwich City (A, 21 Nov 2026); Preston North End (H, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 23 | Lincoln City | 6 | 3 / 3 | 6.42 / 18 | Burnley (H, 24 Oct 2026); Birmingham City (H, 31 Oct 2026); Watford (A, 3 Nov 2026); Queens Park Rangers (A, 7 Nov 2026); Wrexham (H, 21 Nov 2026); Charlton Athletic (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
| 24 | Preston North End | 6 | 3 / 3 | 5.88 / 18 | West Bromwich Albion (H, 24 Oct 2026); Stoke City (A, 31 Oct 2026); Sheffield United (H, 3 Nov 2026); Southampton (H, 7 Nov 2026); West Ham (A, 21 Nov 2026); Cardiff City (A, 24 Nov 2026) |
How are expected points calculated?
For each fixture: 3 × win probability + draw probability. We add those values across up to six upcoming fixtures. Six wins would return 18 points; a forecast is an expectation, not a guaranteed points total.
Does this measure fixture difficulty?
It measures the model's expected return for each club. Stronger clubs can have higher expected points even against strong opponents. It is not a standalone opponent-strength rating.
Why can the match forecast show different probabilities?
This table uses the published season model. Near-term match forecasts can include newer information. Future injuries and transfers are not anticipated here. Clubs without any dated future fixtures are omitted.
Source: published Championship season projection, calculated from completed league results. Read the model methodology.