Ligue 1 · 2026-27
Ligue 1 next six fixtures and expected points
Paris Saint-Germain have the highest model expected points across a full six-fixture window: 13.03 out of 18. Compare 18 clubs with dated upcoming fixtures below.
Expected points reflect each club's strength as well as its opponents and venues. A higher total does not by itself mean an easier schedule.
Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:48 UTC · Season model dc-v4-fe18b1a9f760. Fixtures are selected after the current time; postponed or undated fixtures are excluded.
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Expected points over the next six matches
Ordered by total expected points, highest first. These are six scheduled matches, not necessarily six consecutive matchweeks.
| Rank | Club | Fixtures | Home / away | Expected points / available | Upcoming opponents (H/A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 / 3 | 13.03 / 18 | Lyon (H, 25 Oct 2026); Le Havre (A, 30 Oct 2026); Troyes (H, 7 Nov 2026); Nice (A, 21 Nov 2026); Lorient (H, 28 Nov 2026); Toulouse (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 2 | Marseille | 6 | 4 / 2 | 10.83 / 18 | Le Havre (H, 25 Oct 2026); Toulouse (H, 1 Nov 2026); Lens (A, 8 Nov 2026); Le Mans (H, 22 Nov 2026); Auxerre (A, 29 Nov 2026); Nice (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 3 | Lens | 6 | 4 / 2 | 10.46 / 18 | Paris FC (H, 24 Oct 2026); Lille (A, 30 Oct 2026); Marseille (H, 8 Nov 2026); Toulouse (H, 21 Nov 2026); Angers (A, 28 Nov 2026); Le Havre (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 4 | Monaco | 6 | 3 / 3 | 9.87 / 18 | Lille (H, 25 Oct 2026); Paris FC (A, 1 Nov 2026); Le Mans (A, 8 Nov 2026); Auxerre (H, 21 Nov 2026); Lyon (A, 29 Nov 2026); Angers (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 5 | Lyon | 6 | 2 / 4 | 9.31 / 18 | Paris Saint-Germain (A, 25 Oct 2026); Angers (H, 31 Oct 2026); Brest (A, 8 Nov 2026); Lille (A, 21 Nov 2026); Monaco (H, 29 Nov 2026); Troyes (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 6 | Lille | 6 | 3 / 3 | 9.30 / 18 | Monaco (A, 25 Oct 2026); Lens (H, 30 Oct 2026); Rennes (A, 8 Nov 2026); Lyon (H, 21 Nov 2026); Le Mans (A, 28 Nov 2026); Auxerre (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 6 | 3 / 3 | 9.23 / 18 | Rennes (A, 25 Oct 2026); Auxerre (H, 1 Nov 2026); Toulouse (A, 6 Nov 2026); Brest (H, 21 Nov 2026); Le Havre (A, 28 Nov 2026); Lorient (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 8 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 / 3 | 9.04 / 18 | Lens (A, 24 Oct 2026); Monaco (H, 1 Nov 2026); Auxerre (A, 7 Nov 2026); Angers (H, 22 Nov 2026); Brest (A, 27 Nov 2026); Le Mans (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 9 | Rennes | 6 | 3 / 3 | 9.01 / 18 | Strasbourg (H, 25 Oct 2026); Nice (A, 31 Oct 2026); Lille (H, 8 Nov 2026); Lorient (A, 22 Nov 2026); Toulouse (A, 29 Nov 2026); Brest (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 10 | Toulouse | 6 | 4 / 2 | 7.74 / 18 | Troyes (H, 24 Oct 2026); Marseille (A, 1 Nov 2026); Strasbourg (H, 6 Nov 2026); Lens (A, 21 Nov 2026); Rennes (H, 29 Nov 2026); Paris Saint-Germain (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 11 | Nice | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.68 / 18 | Brest (A, 23 Oct 2026); Rennes (H, 31 Oct 2026); Angers (A, 8 Nov 2026); Paris Saint-Germain (H, 21 Nov 2026); Troyes (H, 28 Nov 2026); Marseille (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 12 | Brest | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.42 / 18 | Nice (H, 23 Oct 2026); Lorient (A, 31 Oct 2026); Lyon (H, 8 Nov 2026); Strasbourg (A, 21 Nov 2026); Paris FC (H, 27 Nov 2026); Rennes (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 13 | Lorient | 6 | 2 / 4 | 7.39 / 18 | Angers (A, 25 Oct 2026); Brest (H, 31 Oct 2026); Le Havre (A, 8 Nov 2026); Rennes (H, 22 Nov 2026); Paris Saint-Germain (A, 28 Nov 2026); Strasbourg (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 14 | Auxerre | 6 | 3 / 3 | 6.57 / 18 | Le Mans (H, 25 Oct 2026); Strasbourg (A, 1 Nov 2026); Paris FC (H, 7 Nov 2026); Monaco (A, 21 Nov 2026); Marseille (H, 29 Nov 2026); Lille (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 15 | Le Mans | 6 | 2 / 4 | 6.45 / 18 | Auxerre (A, 25 Oct 2026); Troyes (A, 31 Oct 2026); Monaco (H, 8 Nov 2026); Marseille (A, 22 Nov 2026); Lille (H, 28 Nov 2026); Paris FC (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 16 | Le Havre | 6 | 3 / 3 | 5.76 / 18 | Marseille (A, 25 Oct 2026); Paris Saint-Germain (H, 30 Oct 2026); Lorient (H, 8 Nov 2026); Troyes (A, 20 Nov 2026); Strasbourg (H, 28 Nov 2026); Lens (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 17 | Angers | 6 | 3 / 3 | 5.26 / 18 | Lorient (H, 25 Oct 2026); Lyon (A, 31 Oct 2026); Nice (H, 8 Nov 2026); Paris FC (A, 22 Nov 2026); Lens (H, 28 Nov 2026); Monaco (A, 5 Dec 2026) |
| 18 | Troyes | 6 | 3 / 3 | 4.95 / 18 | Toulouse (A, 24 Oct 2026); Le Mans (H, 31 Oct 2026); Paris Saint-Germain (A, 7 Nov 2026); Le Havre (H, 20 Nov 2026); Nice (A, 28 Nov 2026); Lyon (H, 5 Dec 2026) |
How are expected points calculated?
For each fixture: 3 × win probability + draw probability. We add those values across up to six upcoming fixtures. Six wins would return 18 points; a forecast is an expectation, not a guaranteed points total.
Does this measure fixture difficulty?
It measures the model's expected return for each club. Stronger clubs can have higher expected points even against strong opponents. It is not a standalone opponent-strength rating.
Why can the match forecast show different probabilities?
This table uses the published season model. Near-term match forecasts can include newer information. Future injuries and transfers are not anticipated here. Clubs without any dated future fixtures are omitted.
Source: published Ligue 1 season projection, calculated from completed league results. Read the model methodology.