Premier League · 2026-27
Premier League next six fixtures and expected points
Manchester City have the highest model expected points across a full six-fixture window: 11.28 out of 18. Compare 20 clubs with dated upcoming fixtures below.
Expected points reflect each club's strength as well as its opponents and venues. A higher total does not by itself mean an easier schedule.
Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:47 UTC · Season model dc-v4-9edeebea6ef7. Fixtures are selected after the current time; postponed or undated fixtures are excluded.
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Expected points over the next six matches
Ordered by total expected points, highest first. These are six scheduled matches, not necessarily six consecutive matchweeks.
| Rank | Club | Fixtures | Home / away | Expected points / available | Upcoming opponents (H/A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 3 / 3 | 11.28 / 18 | Aston Villa (A, 24 Oct 2026); Brighton (H, 31 Oct 2026); Nottingham Forest (A, 7 Nov 2026); Fulham (H, 21 Nov 2026); Arsenal (A, 29 Nov 2026); Leeds United (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 3 / 3 | 10.90 / 18 | Everton (H, 24 Oct 2026); Liverpool (A, 1 Nov 2026); Hull City (H, 7 Nov 2026); Newcastle (A, 21 Nov 2026); Manchester City (H, 29 Nov 2026); Brentford (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 3 | Chelsea | 6 | 4 / 2 | 10.09 / 18 | Tottenham (H, 24 Oct 2026); Manchester United (H, 31 Oct 2026); Sunderland (A, 8 Nov 2026); Leeds United (H, 21 Nov 2026); Nottingham Forest (A, 27 Nov 2026); Crystal Palace (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 4 | Liverpool | 6 | 4 / 2 | 10.02 / 18 | Brighton (H, 25 Oct 2026); Arsenal (H, 1 Nov 2026); Crystal Palace (A, 8 Nov 2026); Manchester United (H, 22 Nov 2026); Everton (A, 29 Nov 2026); Sunderland (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 6 | 4 / 2 | 9.06 / 18 | Manchester City (H, 24 Oct 2026); Fulham (H, 31 Oct 2026); Manchester United (A, 8 Nov 2026); Sunderland (H, 21 Nov 2026); Ipswich (A, 28 Nov 2026); Everton (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 6 | Tottenham | 6 | 3 / 3 | 8.74 / 18 | Coventry City (H, 19 Oct 2026); Chelsea (A, 24 Oct 2026); Crystal Palace (H, 31 Oct 2026); Leeds United (A, 7 Nov 2026); Ipswich (H, 21 Nov 2026); Sunderland (A, 29 Nov 2026) |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 6 | 3 / 3 | 8.58 / 18 | Manchester United (A, 25 Oct 2026); Leeds United (H, 31 Oct 2026); Ipswich (A, 8 Nov 2026); Nottingham Forest (H, 21 Nov 2026); Fulham (A, 29 Nov 2026); Brighton (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 8 | Brighton | 6 | 2 / 4 | 8.32 / 18 | Liverpool (A, 25 Oct 2026); Manchester City (A, 31 Oct 2026); Brentford (H, 8 Nov 2026); Hull City (A, 22 Nov 2026); Newcastle (H, 29 Nov 2026); Bournemouth (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 9 | Manchester United | 6 | 3 / 3 | 8.21 / 18 | Bournemouth (H, 25 Oct 2026); Chelsea (A, 31 Oct 2026); Aston Villa (H, 8 Nov 2026); Liverpool (A, 22 Nov 2026); Brentford (H, 28 Nov 2026); Newcastle (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 10 | Brentford | 6 | 3 / 3 | 8.01 / 18 | Hull City (A, 25 Oct 2026); Nottingham Forest (H, 31 Oct 2026); Brighton (A, 8 Nov 2026); Everton (H, 23 Nov 2026); Manchester United (A, 28 Nov 2026); Arsenal (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.87 / 18 | Crystal Palace (A, 25 Oct 2026); Everton (H, 2 Nov 2026); Fulham (A, 7 Nov 2026); Arsenal (H, 21 Nov 2026); Brighton (A, 29 Nov 2026); Manchester United (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 12 | Hull City | 6 | 4 / 2 | 7.65 / 18 | Brentford (H, 25 Oct 2026); Ipswich (H, 31 Oct 2026); Arsenal (A, 7 Nov 2026); Brighton (H, 22 Nov 2026); Crystal Palace (A, 29 Nov 2026); Nottingham Forest (H, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 13 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 / 4 | 7.52 / 18 | Sunderland (A, 25 Oct 2026); Bournemouth (A, 31 Oct 2026); Tottenham (H, 7 Nov 2026); Chelsea (A, 21 Nov 2026); Coventry City (H, 28 Nov 2026); Manchester City (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 2 / 4 | 7.30 / 18 | Ipswich (A, 23 Oct 2026); Brentford (A, 31 Oct 2026); Manchester City (H, 7 Nov 2026); Bournemouth (A, 21 Nov 2026); Chelsea (H, 27 Nov 2026); Hull City (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.26 / 18 | Newcastle (H, 25 Oct 2026); Tottenham (A, 31 Oct 2026); Liverpool (H, 8 Nov 2026); Coventry City (A, 21 Nov 2026); Hull City (H, 29 Nov 2026); Chelsea (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 16 | Fulham | 6 | 2 / 4 | 7.15 / 18 | Coventry City (A, 24 Oct 2026); Aston Villa (A, 31 Oct 2026); Newcastle (H, 7 Nov 2026); Manchester City (A, 21 Nov 2026); Bournemouth (H, 29 Nov 2026); Tottenham (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 3 / 3 | 7.04 / 18 | Leeds United (H, 25 Oct 2026); Coventry City (A, 31 Oct 2026); Chelsea (H, 8 Nov 2026); Aston Villa (A, 21 Nov 2026); Tottenham (H, 29 Nov 2026); Liverpool (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 18 | Everton | 6 | 2 / 4 | 6.69 / 18 | Arsenal (A, 24 Oct 2026); Newcastle (A, 2 Nov 2026); Coventry City (H, 6 Nov 2026); Brentford (A, 23 Nov 2026); Liverpool (H, 29 Nov 2026); Aston Villa (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
| 19 | Coventry City | 6 | 3 / 3 | 6.66 / 18 | Tottenham (A, 19 Oct 2026); Fulham (H, 24 Oct 2026); Sunderland (H, 31 Oct 2026); Everton (A, 6 Nov 2026); Crystal Palace (H, 21 Nov 2026); Leeds United (A, 28 Nov 2026) |
| 20 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 / 3 | 5.86 / 18 | Nottingham Forest (H, 23 Oct 2026); Hull City (A, 31 Oct 2026); Bournemouth (H, 8 Nov 2026); Tottenham (A, 21 Nov 2026); Aston Villa (H, 28 Nov 2026); Coventry City (A, 2 Dec 2026) |
How are expected points calculated?
For each fixture: 3 × win probability + draw probability. We add those values across up to six upcoming fixtures. Six wins would return 18 points; a forecast is an expectation, not a guaranteed points total.
Does this measure fixture difficulty?
It measures the model's expected return for each club. Stronger clubs can have higher expected points even against strong opponents. It is not a standalone opponent-strength rating or an official Fantasy Premier League difficulty score.
Why can the match forecast show different probabilities?
This table uses the published season model. Near-term match forecasts can include newer information and player availability. Future injuries and transfers are not anticipated here. Clubs without any dated future fixtures are omitted.
Source: published Premier League season projection, calculated from completed league results. Read the model methodology.