Championship · Gameweek 10
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Queens Park Rangers 40.5%
Prediction probabilities
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.9% in the model.
Queens Park Rangers are 9th with 14 points, while Derby County are 23rd with 6 points. Queens Park Rangers have drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5; Derby County have drawn 2 and lost 3. The head-to-head record is level at 4 wins each across 8 meetings, with Derby County winning the last meeting 3-2 on 25 Apr 2026. Queens Park Rangers have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss at home, while Derby County have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses away.
Home and away form
Queens Park Rangers at home
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 0–1 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–0 (D)
Derby County away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 0–3 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.6%Under 53.4%
- Both teams score
- 51.9%No 48.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.36 – 1.18Total 2.54 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 26%Queens Park Rangers · Derby County
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 2.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 3.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Queens Park Rangers to score 1.36 goals and Derby County 1.18. Its ratings have Queens Park Rangers scoring at 0.95 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 0.96 and 1.00 for Derby County. How the model works.
Questions about Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County
Who is the favourite in Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?
Our model's most likely result is Queens Park Rangers win at 40.5%. Full probabilities: Queens Park Rangers 40.5%, draw 27.5%, Derby County 32.0%.
What is the most likely score in Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.1%. The model expects 1.36 goals for Queens Park Rangers and 1.18 for Derby County.
Will Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.6% and both teams to score 51.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.