Championship · Gameweek 11
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Burnley 53.0%
Prediction probabilities
Burnley vs Wolverhampton: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 55.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 56.4% in the model.
Burnley are 21st in the Championship with 8 points from 10 matches, while Wolverhampton are 10th with 14 points from 9. Burnley’s recent form is DWDLD, compared with Wolverhampton’s LLWWD. Burnley have won once in five matches, while Wolverhampton have won twice. At home, Burnley have drawn four of five and lost once; Wolverhampton’s away record is two wins, one draw and two losses.
Home and away form
Burnley at home
5 played · 0W · 4D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 1–2 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Aug 2026 · West Ham · 2–2 (D)
Wolverhampton away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 1–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–4 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Preston North End · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.6%Under 44.4%
- Both teams score
- 56.4%No 43.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.80 – 1.11Total 2.91 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 17%Burnley · Wolverhampton
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 2.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 3.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Burnley to score 1.80 goals and Wolverhampton 1.11. Its ratings have Burnley scoring at 1.18 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.79 times, against 1.22 and 1.06 for Wolverhampton. How the model works.
Questions about Burnley vs Wolverhampton
Who is the favourite in Burnley vs Wolverhampton?
Our model's most likely result is Burnley win at 53.0%. Full probabilities: Burnley 53.0%, draw 23.9%, Wolverhampton 23.1%.
What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Wolverhampton?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.2%. The model expects 1.80 goals for Burnley and 1.11 for Wolverhampton.
Will Burnley vs Wolverhampton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.6% and both teams to score 56.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.