Championship · Gameweek 11
Millwall vs Lincoln City Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Millwall 48.8%
Prediction probabilities
Millwall vs Lincoln City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 64.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 59.3% in the model.
Millwall are 11th with 14 points from 10 matches, while Lincoln City are 17th with 11 points from 9. Millwall’s recent form is LWDDL, compared with Lincoln City’s LLWWD. Millwall have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 at home; Lincoln City have won 3 and lost 2 away. No head-to-head record or last meeting is provided.
Home and away form
Millwall at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 4–0 (W)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 0–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Norwich City · 3–0 (W)
Lincoln City away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–3 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Middlesbrough · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 35.6%Under 64.4%
- Both teams score
- 40.7%No 59.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.33 – 0.80Total 2.12 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 45% · 27%Millwall · Lincoln City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 2.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| 3.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Millwall to score 1.33 goals and Lincoln City 0.80. Its ratings have Millwall scoring at 0.99 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.88 times, against 0.78 and 0.93 for Lincoln City. How the model works.
Questions about Millwall vs Lincoln City
Who is the favourite in Millwall vs Lincoln City?
Our model's most likely result is Millwall win at 48.8%. Full probabilities: Millwall 48.8%, draw 29.2%, Lincoln City 22.0%.
What is the most likely score in Millwall vs Lincoln City?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 15.5%. The model expects 1.33 goals for Millwall and 0.80 for Lincoln City.
Will Millwall vs Lincoln City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 35.6% and both teams to score 40.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.