Championship · Gameweek 11
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Middlesbrough 60.6%
Prediction probabilities
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 58.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.3% in the model.
Middlesbrough are second in the Championship with 21 points, while Cardiff City are 18th with 10 points. Middlesbrough’s recent form is WWDDW, compared with Cardiff City’s WLWLD. Middlesbrough have won 6 of the 10 meetings since 2020-21, while Cardiff City have won 1; the last meeting ended 1-1 on 4 Jan 2025. Middlesbrough are unbeaten at home, while Cardiff City have drawn 1 and lost 4 away.
Home and away form
Middlesbrough at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 4–3 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 3–1 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Lincoln City · 2–1 (W)
Cardiff City away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–1 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–2 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Derby County · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.3%Under 41.7%
- Both teams score
- 55.3%No 44.7%
- Predicted goals
- 2.02 – 1.01Total 3.03 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 13%Middlesbrough · Cardiff City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| 2.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| 3.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Middlesbrough to score 2.02 goals and Cardiff City 1.01. Its ratings have Middlesbrough scoring at 1.22 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.94 and 1.16 for Cardiff City. How the model works.
Questions about Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City?
Our model's most likely result is Middlesbrough win at 60.6%. Full probabilities: Middlesbrough 60.6%, draw 21.6%, Cardiff City 17.8%.
What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.2%. The model expects 2.02 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.01 for Cardiff City.
Will Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.3% and both teams to score 55.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.