Championship · Gameweek 11
Watford vs Charlton Athletic Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Watford 40.4%
Prediction probabilities
Watford vs Charlton Athletic: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 62.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 55.2% in the model.
Watford are 22nd with 8 points, while Charlton Athletic are 13th with 14 points. Watford’s recent form is LLLLW, compared with Charlton Athletic’s DDLDD. The two meetings since 2025-26 include one Charlton Athletic win and one draw, with the last meeting ending 1-1 on 6 Apr 2026. Watford’s home record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, while Charlton Athletic have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses away.
Home and away form
Watford at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 0–4 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · West Ham · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Aug 2026 · Southampton · 2–1 (W)
Charlton Athletic away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–3 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 0–4 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · West Ham · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38.0%Under 62.0%
- Both teams score
- 44.8%No 55.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.21 – 1.00Total 2.21 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 30%Watford · Charlton Athletic
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 2.5 | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| 3.5 | 18.2% | 81.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Watford to score 1.21 goals and Charlton Athletic 1.00. Its ratings have Watford scoring at 0.86 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.10 times, against 0.79 and 0.98 for Charlton Athletic. How the model works.
Questions about Watford vs Charlton Athletic
Who is the favourite in Watford vs Charlton Athletic?
Our model's most likely result is Watford win at 40.4%. Full probabilities: Watford 40.4%, draw 29.7%, Charlton Athletic 29.9%.
What is the most likely score in Watford vs Charlton Athletic?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.7%. The model expects 1.21 goals for Watford and 1.00 for Charlton Athletic.
Will Watford vs Charlton Athletic have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 38.0% and both teams to score 44.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.