Championship · Gameweek 11
Norwich City vs Portsmouth Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Norwich City 53.6%
Prediction probabilities
Norwich City vs Portsmouth: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 56.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 56.9% in the model.
Norwich City are 19th on 9 points after 9 matches; Portsmouth are 20th on 8. In 4 Championship meetings since 2024-25, Norwich City won 1, Portsmouth won 1 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 3 Apr 2026: Norwich City 1–1 Portsmouth. In their last 5 league matches Norwich City won 2 and Portsmouth won 1.
Home and away form
Norwich City at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.5 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–4 (L)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Burnley · 4–1 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–2 (L)
Portsmouth away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bristol City · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lincoln City · 3–1 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Stoke City · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.6%Under 43.4%
- Both teams score
- 56.9%No 43.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.83 – 1.12Total 2.95 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 16%Norwich City · Portsmouth
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 2.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 3.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Norwich City to score 1.83 goals and Portsmouth 1.12. Its ratings have Norwich City scoring at 1.17 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.07 times, against 0.90 and 1.09 for Portsmouth. How the model works.
Questions about Norwich City vs Portsmouth
Who is the favourite in Norwich City vs Portsmouth?
Our model's most likely result is Norwich City win at 53.6%. Full probabilities: Norwich City 53.6%, draw 23.6%, Portsmouth 22.8%.
What is the most likely score in Norwich City vs Portsmouth?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.1%. The model expects 1.83 goals for Norwich City and 1.12 for Portsmouth.
Will Norwich City vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 56.6% and both teams to score 56.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.