Championship · Gameweek 11
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Southampton 64.9%
Prediction probabilities
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 71.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 64.3% in the model.
Southampton are 3rd on 17 points after 9 matches; Bolton Wanderers are 14th on 13. In their last 5 league matches Southampton won 3 and Bolton Wanderers won 3.
Home and away form
Southampton at home
5 played · 5W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.2 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 4–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 3–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Millwall · 5–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Stoke City · 3–1 (W)
Bolton Wanderers away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 3–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 4–3 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 0–4 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71.1%Under 28.9%
- Both teams score
- 64.3%No 35.7%
- Predicted goals
- 2.47 – 1.20Total 3.68 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 8%Southampton · Bolton Wanderers
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88.4% | 11.6% |
| 2.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 3.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Southampton to score 2.47 goals and Bolton Wanderers 1.20. Its ratings have Southampton scoring at 1.43 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 1.09 and 1.20 for Bolton Wanderers. How the model works.
Questions about Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers
Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?
Our model's most likely result is Southampton win at 64.9%. Full probabilities: Southampton 64.9%, draw 18.4%, Bolton Wanderers 16.7%.
What is the most likely score in Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.3%. The model expects 2.47 goals for Southampton and 1.20 for Bolton Wanderers.
Will Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 71.1% and both teams to score 64.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.