Championship · Gameweek 11
Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Birmingham City 47.5%
Prediction probabilities
Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.5% in the model.
Birmingham City are 4th on 17 points after 10 matches; Queens Park Rangers are 9th on 14. In 10 Championship meetings since 2020-21, Birmingham City won 4, Queens Park Rangers won 4 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 11 Mar 2026: Birmingham City 1–0 Queens Park Rangers. In their last 5 league matches Birmingham City won 3 and Queens Park Rangers won 0.
Home and away form
Birmingham City at home
5 played · 1W · 4D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 4–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Wolverhampton · 2–2 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Bristol City · 2–2 (D)
Queens Park Rangers away
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 9 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–1 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Portsmouth · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.5%Under 53.5%
- Both teams score
- 50.5%No 49.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.50 – 1.04Total 2.54 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 22%Birmingham City · Queens Park Rangers
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 3.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Birmingham City to score 1.50 goals and Queens Park Rangers 1.04. Its ratings have Birmingham City scoring at 0.98 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 0.95 and 1.06 for Queens Park Rangers. How the model works.
Questions about Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers
Who is the favourite in Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers?
Our model's most likely result is Birmingham City win at 47.5%. Full probabilities: Birmingham City 47.5%, draw 26.7%, Queens Park Rangers 25.7%.
What is the most likely score in Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.7%. The model expects 1.50 goals for Birmingham City and 1.04 for Queens Park Rangers.
Will Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.5% and both teams to score 50.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.