Championship · Gameweek 11
Derby County vs Stoke City Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Derby County 44.1%
Prediction probabilities
Derby County vs Stoke City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 56.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 50.8% in the model.
Derby County are 23rd on 6 points after 9 matches; Stoke City are 7th on 16. In 8 Championship meetings since 2020-21, Derby County won 3, Stoke City won 3 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 6 Apr 2026: Derby County 2–0 Stoke City. In their last 5 league matches Derby County won 0 and Stoke City won 3.
Home and away form
Derby County at home
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Wrexham · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–2 (L)
- 9 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 0–1 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Swansea City · 0–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–2 (D)
Stoke City away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Watford · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–4 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Southampton · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.0%Under 56.0%
- Both teams score
- 49.2%No 50.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.39 – 1.05Total 2.44 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 25%Derby County · Stoke City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 2.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| 3.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Derby County to score 1.39 goals and Stoke City 1.05. Its ratings have Derby County scoring at 0.96 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.00 times, against 0.91 and 1.01 for Stoke City. How the model works.
Questions about Derby County vs Stoke City
Who is the favourite in Derby County vs Stoke City?
Our model's most likely result is Derby County win at 44.1%. Full probabilities: Derby County 44.1%, draw 27.8%, Stoke City 28.1%.
What is the most likely score in Derby County vs Stoke City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.39 goals for Derby County and 1.05 for Stoke City.
Will Derby County vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.0% and both teams to score 49.2%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.