Championship · Gameweek 11
Swansea City vs West Ham Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: West Ham 43.0%
Prediction probabilities
Swansea City vs West Ham: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 61.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 63.1% in the model.
Swansea City are 1st on 23 points after 10 matches; West Ham are 6th on 16. In their last 5 league matches Swansea City won 4 and West Ham won 3.
Home and away form
Swansea City at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 3–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 0–0 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Watford · 2–0 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–0 (D)
West Ham away
4 played · 1W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–2 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Watford · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Aug 2026 · Burnley · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61.2%Under 38.8%
- Both teams score
- 63.1%No 36.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.46 – 1.70Total 3.16 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 23%Swansea City · West Ham
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 2.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 3.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Swansea City to score 1.46 goals and West Ham 1.70. Its ratings have Swansea City scoring at 1.01 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 1.58 and 1.01 for West Ham. How the model works.
Questions about Swansea City vs West Ham
Who is the favourite in Swansea City vs West Ham?
Our model's most likely result is West Ham win at 43.0%. Full probabilities: Swansea City 32.8%, draw 24.1%, West Ham 43.0%.
What is the most likely score in Swansea City vs West Ham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.9%. The model expects 1.46 goals for Swansea City and 1.70 for West Ham.
Will Swansea City vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 61.2% and both teams to score 63.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.