Championship · Gameweek 11
Wrexham vs Preston North End Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Wrexham 52.7%
Prediction probabilities
Wrexham vs Preston North End: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 54.7% in the model.
Wrexham are 16th on 11 points after 10 matches; Preston North End are 24th on 4. In 2 Championship meetings since 2025-26, Wrexham won 1, Preston North End won 0 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 29 Dec 2025: Wrexham 2–1 Preston North End. In their last 5 league matches Wrexham won 1 and Preston North End won 0.
Home and away form
Wrexham at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Watford · 1–1 (D)
Preston North End away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 2–2 (D)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–1 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.5%Under 46.5%
- Both teams score
- 54.7%No 45.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.74 – 1.07Total 2.82 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 17%Wrexham · Preston North End
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 2.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 3.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Wrexham to score 1.74 goals and Preston North End 1.07. Its ratings have Wrexham scoring at 1.09 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.08 times, against 0.86 and 1.12 for Preston North End. How the model works.
Questions about Wrexham vs Preston North End
Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Preston North End?
Our model's most likely result is Wrexham win at 52.7%. Full probabilities: Wrexham 52.7%, draw 24.4%, Preston North End 23.0%.
What is the most likely score in Wrexham vs Preston North End?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.74 goals for Wrexham and 1.07 for Preston North End.
Will Wrexham vs Preston North End have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.5% and both teams to score 54.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.