Championship · Gameweek 13
Sheffield United vs Wrexham Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Sheffield United 48.1%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Sheffield United vs Wrexham: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 55.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 57.3% in the model.
Sheffield United are 15th on 12 points after 10 matches; Wrexham are 17th on 11. In 2 Championship meetings since 2025-26, Sheffield United won 0, Wrexham won 2 and none were drawn. They last met on 21 Mar 2026: Sheffield United 1–2 Wrexham. In their last 5 league matches Sheffield United won 2 and Wrexham won 1.
Home and away form
Sheffield United at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 3–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Wolverhampton · 0–1 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–3 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–2 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–0 (D)
Wrexham away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Derby County · 1–1 (D)
- 11 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 0–6 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 0–0 (D)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 3–0 (W)
- 17 Aug 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Sheffield United vs Wrexham: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.0%Under 45.0%
- Both teams score
- 57.3%No 42.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.68 – 1.21Total 2.88 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 19%Sheffield United · Wrexham
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.6% | 2/7 | 21.4% | 7/2 |
| 2.5 | 55.0% | 5/6 | 45.0% | 6/5 |
| 3.5 | 32.6% | 85/40 | 67.3% | 1/2 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Sheffield United to score 1.68 goals and Wrexham 1.21. Its ratings have Sheffield United scoring at 1.09 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 1.08 and 1.07 for Wrexham. How the model works.
Questions about Sheffield United vs Wrexham
Who is the favourite in Sheffield United vs Wrexham?
Our model's most likely result is Sheffield United win at 48.1%. Full probabilities: Sheffield United 48.1%, draw 24.7%, Wrexham 27.2%.
What is the most likely score in Sheffield United vs Wrexham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.68 goals for Sheffield United and 1.21 for Wrexham.
Will Sheffield United vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.0% and both teams to score 57.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-5bc39de1bed1
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.