Championship · Gameweek 13
Stoke City vs Preston North End Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Stoke City 46.9%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 12 predictions (33%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Stoke City vs Preston North End: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 55.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.1% in the model.
Stoke City are 9th on 16 points after 10 matches; Preston North End are 24th on 4. In 22 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Stoke City won 5, Preston North End won 9 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 20 Mar 2026: Preston North End 3–1 Stoke City. In their last 5 league matches Stoke City won 3 and Preston North End won 0.
Home and away form
Stoke City at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 4–0 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Swansea City · 1–2 (L)
Preston North End away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 2–2 (D)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–1 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Stoke City vs Preston North End: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.5%Under 55.5%
- Both teams score
- 48.9%No 51.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.45 – 1.01Total 2.46 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 24%Stoke City · Preston North End
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.7% | 2/5 | 29.3% | 5/2 |
| 2.5 | 44.5% | 5/4 | 55.5% | 4/5 |
| 3.5 | 23.3% | 10/3 | 76.7% | 3/10 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Stoke City to score 1.45 goals and Preston North End 1.01. Its ratings have Stoke City scoring at 0.90 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.85 and 1.11 for Preston North End. How the model works.
Questions about Stoke City vs Preston North End
Who is the favourite in Stoke City vs Preston North End?
Our model's most likely result is Stoke City win at 46.9%. Full probabilities: Stoke City 46.9%, draw 27.1%, Preston North End 26.0%.
What is the most likely score in Stoke City vs Preston North End?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.45 goals for Stoke City and 1.01 for Preston North End.
Will Stoke City vs Preston North End have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.5% and both teams to score 48.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,603
- Model version
- dc-v4-cb70ea4972bf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.