Championship · Gameweek 13
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Birmingham City 41.6%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 12 predictions (33%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.8% in the model.
Lincoln City are 16th on 12 points after 11 matches; Birmingham City are 5th on 17. In their last 5 league matches Lincoln City won 1 and Birmingham City won 3.
Home and away form
Lincoln City at home
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 14 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 0–6 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–1 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–3 (L)
Birmingham City away
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 2–1 (W)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–2 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Wrexham · 2–1 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.4%Under 57.6%
- Both teams score
- 48.3%No 51.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.07 – 1.31Total 2.38 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 34%Lincoln City · Birmingham City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.0% | 4/9 | 31.0% | 9/4 |
| 2.5 | 42.4% | 11/8 | 57.6% | 8/11 |
| 3.5 | 21.6% | 7/2 | 78.4% | 2/7 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lincoln City to score 1.07 goals and Birmingham City 1.31. Its ratings have Lincoln City scoring at 0.79 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.14 times, against 0.98 and 0.94 for Birmingham City. How the model works.
Questions about Lincoln City vs Birmingham City
Who is the favourite in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
Our model's most likely result is Birmingham City win at 41.6%. Full probabilities: Lincoln City 30.2%, draw 28.3%, Birmingham City 41.6%.
What is the most likely score in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.3%. The model expects 1.07 goals for Lincoln City and 1.31 for Birmingham City.
Will Lincoln City vs Birmingham City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.4% and both teams to score 48.2%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,603
- Model version
- dc-v4-cb70ea4972bf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.