Championship · Gameweek 13
Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Wolverhampton 59.7%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 12 predictions (42%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 63.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.9% in the model.
Wolverhampton are 8th on 17 points after 10 matches; Cardiff City are 19th on 11. In 18 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Wolverhampton won 8, Cardiff City won 8 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 6 Apr 2018: Cardiff City 0–1 Wolverhampton. In their last 5 league matches Wolverhampton won 3 and Cardiff City won 2.
Home and away form
Wolverhampton at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 1–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Stoke City · 4–1 (W)
- 14 Aug 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–2 (D)
Cardiff City away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–1 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–2 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.1%Under 36.9%
- Both teams score
- 59.9%No 40.1%
- Predicted goals
- 2.12 – 1.14Total 3.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 12%Wolverhampton · Cardiff City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.7% | 1/5 | 16.3% | 5/1 |
| 2.5 | 63.1% | 4/7 | 36.9% | 7/4 |
| 3.5 | 40.9% | 6/4 | 59.1% | 4/6 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Wolverhampton to score 2.12 goals and Cardiff City 1.14. Its ratings have Wolverhampton scoring at 1.28 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.96 and 1.15 for Cardiff City. How the model works.
Questions about Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City
Who is the favourite in Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City?
Our model's most likely result is Wolverhampton win at 59.7%. Full probabilities: Wolverhampton 59.7%, draw 20.8%, Cardiff City 19.5%.
What is the most likely score in Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.8%. The model expects 2.12 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.14 for Cardiff City.
Will Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 63.1% and both teams to score 59.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,611
- Model version
- dc-v4-7c38089bae99
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.