Championship · Gameweek 13
Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Swansea City 46.2%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 12 predictions (42%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 59.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 54.4% in the model.
Swansea City are 1st on 23 points after 11 matches; Blackburn Rovers are 10th on 15. In 16 Championship meetings since 2018-19, Swansea City won 8, Blackburn Rovers won 4 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 20 Jan 2026: Swansea City 3–1 Blackburn Rovers. In their last 5 league matches Swansea City won 4 and Blackburn Rovers won 3.
Home and away form
Swansea City at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 3–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 0–0 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Watford · 2–0 (W)
Blackburn Rovers away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 2–3 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 1–2 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.5%Under 59.5%
- Both teams score
- 45.6%No 54.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.36 – 0.94Total 2.30 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 26%Swansea City · Blackburn Rovers
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67.2% | 1/2 | 32.8% | 2/1 |
| 2.5 | 40.5% | 6/4 | 59.5% | 4/6 |
| 3.5 | 20.1% | 4/1 | 79.9% | 1/4 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Swansea City to score 1.36 goals and Blackburn Rovers 0.94. Its ratings have Swansea City scoring at 0.99 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.88 and 0.96 for Blackburn Rovers. How the model works.
Questions about Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers
Who is the favourite in Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers?
Our model's most likely result is Swansea City win at 46.2%. Full probabilities: Swansea City 46.2%, draw 28.0%, Blackburn Rovers 25.7%.
What is the most likely score in Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.3%. The model expects 1.36 goals for Swansea City and 0.94 for Blackburn Rovers.
Will Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.5% and both teams to score 45.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,611
- Model version
- dc-v4-7c38089bae99
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.