Championship · Gameweek 13
Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Bolton Wanderers 42.6%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 12 predictions (42%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 51.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.4% in the model.
Bolton Wanderers are 15th on 14 points after 11 matches; Bristol City are 16th on 14. In 8 Championship meetings since 2012-13, Bolton Wanderers won 3, Bristol City won 3 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 12 Jan 2019: Bristol City 2–1 Bolton Wanderers. In their last 5 league matches Bolton Wanderers won 3 and Bristol City won 1.
Home and away form
Bolton Wanderers at home
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–0 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lincoln City · 0–1 (L)
Bristol City away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–4 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 2–1 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 3–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.0%Under 51.0%
- Both teams score
- 53.4%No 46.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.44 – 1.19Total 2.63 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 24%Bolton Wanderers · Bristol City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.1% | 4/11 | 25.9% | 11/4 |
| 2.5 | 49.0% | evs | 51.0% | evs |
| 3.5 | 27.1% | 11/4 | 72.9% | 4/11 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bolton Wanderers to score 1.44 goals and Bristol City 1.19. Its ratings have Bolton Wanderers scoring at 1.02 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.09 times, against 0.94 and 0.99 for Bristol City. How the model works.
Questions about Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City
Who is the favourite in Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City?
Our model's most likely result is Bolton Wanderers win at 42.6%. Full probabilities: Bolton Wanderers 42.6%, draw 26.4%, Bristol City 31.0%.
What is the most likely score in Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.6%. The model expects 1.44 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.19 for Bristol City.
Will Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.0% and both teams to score 53.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,611
- Model version
- dc-v4-7c38089bae99
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.