Championship · Gameweek 13
Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Middlesbrough 58.0%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 12 predictions (42%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 53.5% in the model.
Middlesbrough are 3rd on 22 points after 11 matches; Charlton Athletic are 17th on 14. In 12 Championship meetings since 2012-13, Middlesbrough won 8, Charlton Athletic won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 11 Mar 2026: Middlesbrough 0–1 Charlton Athletic. In their last 5 league matches Middlesbrough won 2 and Charlton Athletic won 0.
Home and away form
Middlesbrough at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–2 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 4–3 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 3–1 (W)
Charlton Athletic away
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Watford · 0–2 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–3 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 0–4 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.7%Under 53.3%
- Both teams score
- 46.5%No 53.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.71 – 0.83Total 2.54 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 44% · 18%Middlesbrough · Charlton Athletic
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.3% | 2/5 | 27.7% | 5/2 |
| 2.5 | 46.7% | 11/10 | 53.3% | 10/11 |
| 3.5 | 25.1% | 3/1 | 74.8% | 1/3 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Middlesbrough to score 1.71 goals and Charlton Athletic 0.83. Its ratings have Middlesbrough scoring at 1.21 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 0.77 and 0.99 for Charlton Athletic. How the model works.
Questions about Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic?
Our model's most likely result is Middlesbrough win at 58.0%. Full probabilities: Middlesbrough 58.0%, draw 24.2%, Charlton Athletic 17.8%.
What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.71 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.83 for Charlton Athletic.
Will Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.7% and both teams to score 46.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,611
- Model version
- dc-v4-7c38089bae99
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.