Championship · Gameweek 13
Burnley vs Portsmouth Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Burnley 59.1%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 12 predictions (42%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Burnley vs Portsmouth: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.7% in the model.
Burnley are 22nd on 8 points after 11 matches; Portsmouth are 13th on 14. In 6 Championship meetings since 2010-11, Burnley won 3, Portsmouth won 1 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 1 Feb 2025: Portsmouth 0–0 Burnley. In their last 5 league matches Burnley won 1 and Portsmouth won 2.
Home and away form
Burnley at home
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 16 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–2 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 1–2 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 1–1 (D)
Portsmouth away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bristol City · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lincoln City · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Burnley vs Portsmouth: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.4%Under 50.6%
- Both teams score
- 48.3%No 51.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.79 – 0.86Total 2.65 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 42% · 17%Burnley · Portsmouth
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.4% | 1/3 | 25.6% | 3/1 |
| 2.5 | 49.4% | evs | 50.6% | evs |
| 3.5 | 27.5% | 11/4 | 72.5% | 4/11 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Burnley to score 1.79 goals and Portsmouth 0.86. Its ratings have Burnley scoring at 1.16 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.80 times, against 0.92 and 1.07 for Portsmouth. How the model works.
Questions about Burnley vs Portsmouth
Who is the favourite in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Our model's most likely result is Burnley win at 59.1%. Full probabilities: Burnley 59.1%, draw 23.3%, Portsmouth 17.5%.
What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 12.4%. The model expects 1.79 goals for Burnley and 0.86 for Portsmouth.
Will Burnley vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.4% and both teams to score 48.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,611
- Model version
- dc-v4-7c38089bae99
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.