Championship · Gameweek 13
Millwall vs Derby County Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Millwall 48.4%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 12 predictions (42%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Millwall vs Derby County: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 56.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.9% in the model.
Millwall are 12th on 15 points after 11 matches; Derby County are 23rd on 6. In 26 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Millwall won 11, Derby County won 7 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 10 Mar 2026: Millwall 1–0 Derby County. In their last 5 league matches Millwall won 1 and Derby County won 0.
Home and away form
Millwall at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 2–2 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 4–0 (W)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 0–3 (L)
Derby County away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 14 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 0–3 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Millwall vs Derby County: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.0%Under 56.0%
- Both teams score
- 48.1%No 51.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.47 – 0.97Total 2.44 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 23%Millwall · Derby County
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.2% | 4/9 | 29.8% | 9/4 |
| 2.5 | 44.0% | 5/4 | 56.0% | 4/5 |
| 3.5 | 22.9% | 10/3 | 77.0% | 3/10 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Millwall to score 1.47 goals and Derby County 0.97. Its ratings have Millwall scoring at 0.99 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.89 times, against 0.94 and 1.03 for Derby County. How the model works.
Questions about Millwall vs Derby County
Who is the favourite in Millwall vs Derby County?
Our model's most likely result is Millwall win at 48.4%. Full probabilities: Millwall 48.4%, draw 26.8%, Derby County 24.8%.
What is the most likely score in Millwall vs Derby County?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.7%. The model expects 1.47 goals for Millwall and 0.97 for Derby County.
Will Millwall vs Derby County have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.0% and both teams to score 48.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,611
- Model version
- dc-v4-7c38089bae99
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.