Championship · Gameweek 13
Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Southampton 62.4%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 12 predictions (42%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 60.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 56.6% in the model.
Southampton are 4th on 21 points after 11 matches; Queens Park Rangers are 9th on 17. In 12 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Southampton won 6, Queens Park Rangers won 4 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 24 Feb 2026: Southampton 5–0 Queens Park Rangers. In their last 5 league matches Southampton won 3 and Queens Park Rangers won 1.
Home and away form
Southampton at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–0 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 4–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 3–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Millwall · 5–1 (W)
Queens Park Rangers away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–3 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.9%Under 39.1%
- Both teams score
- 56.6%No 43.4%
- Predicted goals
- 2.12 – 1.02Total 3.15 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 12%Southampton · Queens Park Rangers
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.4% | 2/9 | 17.6% | 9/2 |
| 2.5 | 60.9% | 4/6 | 39.1% | 6/4 |
| 3.5 | 38.6% | 13/8 | 61.4% | 8/13 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Southampton to score 2.12 goals and Queens Park Rangers 1.02. Its ratings have Southampton scoring at 1.37 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.91 times, against 0.96 and 1.08 for Queens Park Rangers. How the model works.
Questions about Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers
Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers?
Our model's most likely result is Southampton win at 62.4%. Full probabilities: Southampton 62.4%, draw 20.5%, Queens Park Rangers 17.1%.
What is the most likely score in Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.9%. The model expects 2.12 goals for Southampton and 1.02 for Queens Park Rangers.
Will Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.9% and both teams to score 56.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 6,611
- Model version
- dc-v4-7c38089bae99
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.