Bundesliga · Gameweek 6
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Borussia Dortmund 57.0%
Prediction probabilities
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 56.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.9% in the model.
Union Berlin are 16th on 4 points after 5 matches; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 13. In 12 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, Union Berlin won 3, Borussia Dortmund won 9 and none were drawn. They last met on 24 Jan 2026: Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund. In their last 5 league matches Union Berlin won 1 and Borussia Dortmund won 4.
Home and away form
Union Berlin at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Elversberg · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Schalke · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 3–3 (D)
- 16 May 2026 · Augsburg · 4–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Fc Cologne · 2–2 (D)
Borussia Dortmund away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–2 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–0 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 0–1 (L)
- 18 Apr 2026 · Hoffenheim · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.6%Under 43.4%
- Both teams score
- 55.9%No 44.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.04 – 1.92Total 2.95 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 15% · 35%Union Berlin · Borussia Dortmund
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 2.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 3.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Union Berlin to score 1.04 goals and Borussia Dortmund 1.92. Its ratings have Union Berlin scoring at 0.84 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.38 and 0.74 for Borussia Dortmund. How the model works.
Questions about Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Who is the favourite in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model's most likely result is Borussia Dortmund win at 57.0%. Full probabilities: Union Berlin 19.3%, draw 23.7%, Borussia Dortmund 57.0%.
What is the most likely score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.2%. The model expects 1.04 goals for Union Berlin and 1.92 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 56.6% and both teams to score 55.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.