Bundesliga · Gameweek 6
Hamburg vs Stuttgart Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Stuttgart 50.8%
Prediction probabilities
Hamburg vs Stuttgart: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 61.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 61.8% in the model.
Hamburg are 12th on 6 points after 5 matches; Stuttgart are 11th on 6. In 2 Bundesliga meetings since 2025-26, Hamburg won 1, Stuttgart won 1 and none were drawn. They last met on 12 Apr 2026: Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburg. In their last 5 league matches Hamburg won 2 and Stuttgart won 2.
Home and away form
Hamburg at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Fc Cologne · 2–1 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Mainz · 0–5 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Freiburg · 3–2 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Hoffenheim · 1–2 (L)
Stuttgart away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 2–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 1–2 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–5 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 2–2 (D)
- 2 May 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–3 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61.0%Under 39.0%
- Both teams score
- 61.8%No 38.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.27 – 1.88Total 3.15 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 15% · 28%Hamburg · Stuttgart
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 2.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 3.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Hamburg to score 1.27 goals and Stuttgart 1.88. Its ratings have Hamburg scoring at 0.85 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.08 times, against 1.30 and 0.90 for Stuttgart. How the model works.
Questions about Hamburg vs Stuttgart
Who is the favourite in Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
Our model's most likely result is Stuttgart win at 50.8%. Full probabilities: Hamburg 25.1%, draw 24.1%, Stuttgart 50.8%.
What is the most likely score in Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.0%. The model expects 1.27 goals for Hamburg and 1.88 for Stuttgart.
Will Hamburg vs Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 61.0% and both teams to score 61.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.